How to Find Positive EV Bets Every Day
Finding positive Expected Value (+EV) bets is the only way to be profitable long-term. But how do you actually find them?
5 Methods to Find +EV Bets
1. Build Your Own Model
Create a statistical model that predicts outcomes better than the market:
- Collect historical data (team stats, player metrics, situational factors)
- Build a regression model or machine learning algorithm
- Generate win probabilities for upcoming games
- Compare to sportsbook odds to find discrepancies
Pros: Complete control, can find massive edges
Cons: Requires coding, stats knowledge, and constant maintenance
2. Use Market-Based Approaches
Instead of modeling games yourself, use market signals:
- Pinnacle CLV: Bet soft books when they lag behind sharp Pinnacle lines
- Steam chasing: Follow sharp money moves (risky, often too late)
- Reverse line movement: When lines move against public betting percentages
Find +EV Automatically
Landmark Bets scans thousands of lines daily and highlights positive EV opportunities you can bet immediately.
Find +EV Bets →3. Exploit Soft Markets
Some markets have less sharp competition:
- Player props: Books struggle to price these efficiently
- Niche sports: KBO baseball, Australian rules football, esports
- Live betting: Fast-moving lines create pricing errors
- Alt lines: Alternative spreads/totals often mispriced
4. Specialize in One Sport
Instead of betting everything, become an expert in one area:
- Deep knowledge beats generalists
- You'll spot market inefficiencies others miss
- Easier to maintain edge over time
5. Use +EV Tools
Professional bettors don't manually calculate EV all day. They use software that:
- Compares odds across 15+ sportsbooks
- Calculates fair odds using multiple sources
- Highlights bets with the highest EV
- Tracks CLV and ROI automatically
Stop Searching, Start Betting
Landmark Bets does the heavy lifting. Get +EV alerts, line shopping, and bet tracking all in one place.
Automate Your Edge →Where NOT to Look for +EV
- Parlays: Combined vig makes these -EV 99% of the time
- Same-game parlays: Even worse than regular parlays
- Teasers: Buying points is expensive
- Futures without hedging: Your money locked up for months
- Betting favorites blindly: Public loves favorites, books shade lines
The Daily +EV Workflow
Morning (9-11 AM):
- Check for line discrepancies across books
- Identify soft lines on recreational sportsbooks
- Place early bets before sharp money moves lines
Afternoon (2-5 PM):
- Monitor line movements
- Look for late +EV player props
- Check for arbitrage or middle opportunities
Evening (6-10 PM):
- Live betting opportunities during games
- Exploit in-play pricing errors
- Review today's bets and record CLV
How Much +EV is Enough?
+1% EV: Worth betting if convenient
+3% EV: Good bet, prioritize these
+5% EV: Great bet, bet more (within bankroll limits)
+10% EV: Rare, max bet this within Kelly guidelines
Final Thoughts
Finding +EV bets isn't magic. It's a combination of:
- Better information (models, data, speed)
- Better tools (odds comparison, EV calculators)
- Better execution (line shopping, timing)
- Better discipline (bankroll management, tracking)
The sharps who make millions aren't smarter—they have better processes and better tools.